The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread – and Why They Stop
Year: 2020
Author: Adam Kucharski
Rating: Informative 5/5 | Entertaining 4/5 | Inspiring 5/5
Image Credit: Goodreads
The threat of contagion, namely of COVID-19, has been making the world go round in recent months. If you want to fight any kind of pandemic like the one the world currently faces, it is a good start to first understand how that crisis spreads. That is exactly what Adam Kucharski explores in his inspiring book The Rule of Contagion. Kucharski is a mathematician and associate professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) where he researches the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks. The Rule of Contagion does not primarily focus on specific causes of diseases or social problems—which can be numerous and complex—instead, the book introduces the common mechanisms underpinning their spread.
First, Kucharski explains the basic patterns of viral epidemics in a light manner such that readers from any background will find it easy to follow. He provides easily graspable explanations for terms such as ‘super-spreaders’ and ‘R-value’, and scientific data and mathematical models are presented in a comprehensive and visually attractive format. He demonstrates the applications of mathematical thinking without getting his audience tangled up in numbers, and references to research papers and graphs help to understand these epidemiological measures. One particularly insightful chapter, for example, is dedicated to Ronald Ross’ first attempts to calculate the spread and control of malaria.
Kucharski then progresses to his main argument: that the same basic patterns apply to a variety of outbreaks. For instance, friend networks not only play a role in the spread of COVID-19, but also in the rise of obesity. Kucharski’s comparison between gun violence in the US and cholera in Bangladesh is not meant as a metaphor, but rather meant quite literally. In a similar vein, he asks us to consider what Facebook posts and measles have in common to consider how to reduce the spread of fake news. If we understand the underlying dynamics of contagion, we will be able to develop better interventions and control measures for a wide variety of different social problems.
This revealing book will inspire readers who are interested in finding solutions to many crises, not just epidemics. Kucharski’s descriptions of epidemiological correlations and pandemics of misinformation are not just of interest because of their topicality—his writing has shown how an understanding of basic epidemiology can be used for planning and improving the general well being of populations. I hope that this book will find an exponentially growing readership, or in other words, spread its knowledge to reimagine global health from an epidemiological point of view.
